In the monthly report of lithium battery in September, we mainly pay attention to the EU’s “New Battery Law” which has just come into effect for 40 days-Under people’s attention lithium strips:50 Finally grow into what people need, born for the market and come for the demand. https://www.canrud.com/products/detail/b89a1cdc62b743e58b1124a8f190a11e
¢ Urgent conspiracy: Can the EU Regulation on Batteries and Waste Batteries (hereinafter referred to as the “New Battery Law”) take China lithium battery to Europe?
¢ Window of Time: Why is the construction of life cycle management of China Power Lithium Battery at a critical moment?
¢ Behind the acceleration: China’s lithium battery industry’s external continuous layout and internal compliance acceleration.
Europe, the imminent open plan
The embarrassment of Europe is that huge emerging markets cannot be digested by local supply chain enterprises.
As the largest new energy vehicle consumption market except China, by 2022, the number of new energy vehicles in Europe will reach 7.62 million. In the first half of this year alone, the cumulative registration of new energy vehicles in EU countries increased by 28.4% year-on-year.
Subsidy policies for car purchase in some European countries;
¢ Spain: 15% personal income tax can be reduced if you buy electric cars or install charging facilities. The tax reduction reward will be maintained until the end of 2024, and the reward for installing charging facilities will be until the end of 2025.
¢ Austria: All electric vehicles are registered tax-free.
¢ France: All regions provide exemptions (all or 50%) for alternative power vehicles (electric, HEV, CNG, LPG and E85).
¢ Finland: The vehicle registration tax for pure trams is 0 Euro.
Under the continuous “tens of billions of subsidies”, the sales of electric vehicles in Europe may reach 3.2 million in 2023, which is a huge and continuously growing market.
However, the supply chain of European local new energy vehicles is in an awkward situation: emerging markets cannot be digested by local supply chains, and foreign aid must be sought from a more perfect East Asian industrial chain.
The first thing to bear the brunt is the power lithium battery.
sourceunsplash
The market share of new energy vehicles made in China in Europe has reached 12%. What goes out to sea with China’s new energy vehicles is naturally China Lithium Battery.
However, European local car brands also use batteries from Asia.
In August this year, the top three new energy vehicle brands in Europe were Tesla (24,036 vehicles), Volkswagen (18,284 vehicles) and BMW (10,009 vehicles). Most of the suppliers of lithium batteries for new energy vehicles of European car companies come from Asian countries such as China and South Korea.
¢ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited supplies Volkswagen ID series new energy vehicles;
¢ German BMW has absorbed Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Vision Power and Panasonic into the supplier team of the new generation of 36 series large cylindrical lithium-ion batteries.
In the first seven months of this year, China’s lithium battery exports totaled US$ 37.045 billion, and the total amount of lithium batteries sold to Europe reached US$ 14 billion, accounting for 38%. At the same time, China power battery enterprises, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited and Honeycomb Energy, have chosen to build factories in Europe.
It can be said that Europe is the second growth curve of China’s lithium battery: it is not only an important destination for the export of lithium battery products in China, but also an important position for the expansion of China’s lithium battery industry chain.
Why are European local lithium battery companies almost invisible in the competition at their doorstep?
It’s not that I don’t want to. I’m too weak.
Now-as the second largest electric vehicle market in the world, Europe’s power battery production capacity is in a backward echelon. European local lithium battery companies have never been qualified to eat at the table.
In the ranking of installed capacity of global power batteries in 2022, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited ranks first, followed by LG New Energy, BYD, Panasonic, SK On and Samsung SDI. None of the top ten are European companies.
In the long run-we have compared the capacity planning according to public information disclosure. From the planning point of view, the overall gap between the capacity layout of Asian lithium battery enterprises and European local enterprises in Europe is not obvious, but the capacity planning of European enterprises is still “castles in the air” at present. There are several reasons for the analysis of “The Star Ship Know How to Build”
First, the European power battery industry lacks a complete supply chain system.
Second, it costs a lot of money to fill in the shortcomings. Power lithium battery is a business with heavy assets and long return on investment-European battery companies are suffering from financing difficulties.
British battery company Britishvolt had hoped to raise 3.8 billion pounds to build a super factory in northern England. However, the enterprise has not signed a contract with any big customers, nor has it tested its technology on a commercial scale, which is almost out of a “fantasy” state. The British government rejected its application for funding of 30 million pounds.
The difficult financing situation has forced European local enterprises to shelve the vision of building a super-large factory to compete with East Asia Power Lithium Battery and turn to the layout of small capacity factories. However, the small-scale pilot project also means that the battery capacity of European local enterprises can not cover the existing market demand and can not get orders from large customers. Form a vicious circle.
Third, European local battery companies are struggling with the development uncertainty brought about by the energy crisis.
The most favored battery company in Europe is Sweden’s Northvolt, which has received investment from BMW and Volkswagen Group successively. However, due to the soaring energy costs in Europe, it was reported last month that Northvolt would postpone its planning to build a factory in Hyde, Germany.
Compared with European battery companies with full buff, car companies are naturally more willing to purchase a large number of power batteries from China.
Until the new battery law came into effect.
It means that the European lithium battery industry is having to seek a way out from a higher non-commercial will. For their own growth, catch up, buy time.
With the entry into force of the New Battery Law, the EU can build a wall for all power batteries flowing to the European market from the ecological standpoint of energy saving, emission reduction, green and low carbon-ask yourself what your identity is before entering my site.
What it holds is the imperfect life cycle management construction standard of power battery in China.
02 Window Period: Green Life Gate
China’s lithium battery industry is facing internal and external troubles.
First, the sales growth of new energy vehicles in China slowed down.
From January to July this year, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 4.526 million, a year-on-year increase of 41.7%. But the growth rate in the same period last year was 116%. The growth rate slowed down significantly.
A person related to the production line of a head lithium battery enterprise told Starship Zhizao that with the increasing penetration rate of electric vehicles, it is inevitable that the sales growth rate will slow down. However, at the same time as the terminal market slows down, the hidden dangers of expanding production capacity in the middle and upper reaches of the industry have become more prominent. Since the middle of this year, most of the employees in his company have been “forced to lie flat”. In the past, the production line workshop, which used to be full of horsepower all the year round, has no classes at present.
Overcapacity of power battery:
Based on the forecast of the demand for power batteries by third-party organizations in 2025, it is roughly 12,261-1,550 GWh, but the capacity planning of global enterprises has reached 8000GWh.
According to the announcement of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises in the first half of the year dropped by 20% compared with last year, and the idle capacity has reached 100GWh h..
Battery material:
The capacity planning of enterprises related to cathode materials, anode materials, lithium battery separators and electrolytes greatly exceeds the upper limit of market demand forecast by third-party research institutions in 2025.
Ferrous lithium phosphate’s leading enterprise, Defang Nano, previously announced that it expected a loss of 1.17-1.04 billion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly due to insufficient capacity utilization.